Insider Brief:
- Quantum computing is expected to generate $877 billion in cumulative economic impact by 2035, but vendors will capture only about $55 billion, about 6% of that total.
- High R&D costs, limited hardware demand, and the rise of cloud-based QCaaS often mediated by hyperscalers have made it difficult for vendors to capture a proportional share of value.
- Industries like finance, logistics, and life sciences are poised to benefit most, with quantum use cases such as simulation, machine learning, and optimization driving the majority of returns.
- The data suggests that scalable, application-layer integrations may hold greater economic potential than investments focused solely on core infrastructure.
- This analysis is based on Resonance’s August 2025 Quantum Market Sizing Report, available in full through The Quantum Insider’s Market Intelligence platform.
If you’re building quantum tech, you might not be the one making the money. According to Resonance’s August 2025 Quantum Market Sizing Report, quantum computing could generate close to $900 billion in cumulative economic impact by 203 driven by new revenue and cost savings across sectors like finance, logistics, and life sciences. But only about 6% of that value is expected to end up in the hands of the vendors who make the technology.
This asymmetry flips the common narrative in emerging tech markets, where builders, those producing hardware, infrastructure, and software, are often assumed to capture the lion’s share of value. In quantum, that may not be the case. Instead, the biggest winners may be the companies that simply use the tech.
The Infrastructure-User Divide
To understand why, it helps to dissect the projections. In Resonance’s base-case scenario, vendors across quantum computing are forecast to generate $5.4 billion in annual revenue by 2030, while the total annual value created for end users via new revenue and cost savings is expected to exceed $65 billion. That means the majority of the economic benefit from quantum computing will flow downstream.
This isn’t expected to be a one-year anomaly. Between 2025 and 2035, quantum is projected to generate $877 billion in total economic impact. Vendors, on the other hand, are expected to take in only $55 billion in revenue across that same period.
It’s an unusually low value capture ratio for a deep tech field still in its infancy. Essentially, if you’re a quantum vendor today, you’re laying the pipes for a flood of value you may never fully monetize, which speaks to the growing decoupling between infrastructure and application profits.
Why Aren’t Vendors Capturing More?
There are several structural reasons behind this value imbalance. First, the capital costs and R&D timelines for quantum hardware vendors are massive. Companies will likely spend years and often hundreds of millions of dollars developing quantum processors, yet still face limited commercial demand and uncertain hardware maturity. With buyers still in exploratory or pilot phases, full-stack deals remain sporadic, and pricing power limited.
Second, the shift to cloud-based access models, Quantum Computing as a Service (QCaaS) further decouples infrastructure from usage-based monetization. By 2030, over 4,000 companies are expected to use QCaaS, with 65% relying on indirect access through hyperscalers like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud. In many cases, these hyperscalers, not the quantum vendors themselves, control the customer relationship and potentially the margin.
Third, end-user innovation scales more efficiently. Just as cloud computing enabled exponential gains in AI and SaaS without requiring users to build data centers, quantum computing is expected to benefit those who can apply it similarly across finance, pharma, logistics, and beyond without having to manufacture a single qubit.
Who Does Capture the Value?
The winners, according to Resonance’s modeling, are likely to be application-layer enterprises that integrate quantum into high-impact workflows.
By 2030, finance, transportation/logistics, and life sciences are expected to account for nearly 80% of all quantum-derived economic impact. Finance leads the pack with a projected $19 billion in annual quantum-enabled value, followed by transportation and life sciences at $17 billion each.
Across all industries, quantum computing is expected to deliver value primarily through four use cases:
- Simulation (e.g., drug discovery, materials design) – 36% of total impact
- Machine learning (e.g., fraud detection, portfolio optimization) – 33%
- Optimization (e.g., routing, supply chains) – 22%
- Cryptography and Security – 9%
In other words, the lion’s share of quantum’s value will be unlocked by those solving problems.
A New Playbook for Investors
For venture capital and private equity firms, this evolving dynamic has implications for portfolio construction. Rather than focusing solely on hardware or core technology bets, a diversified strategy may increasingly favor hybrid players, quantum application startups, or even traditional enterprises investing early in quantum workflows. The “picks and shovels” play may be less about building quantum hardware and more about building quantum-enabled capabilities though simulations, analytics, security tools that plug into broader business value.
This is particularly important given the downward trend in vendor value capture. As Resonance’s report notes, the share of commercial value captured by vendors is expected to decline from 19% in 2026 to just 8% by 2030, even as total impact skyrockets.
Quantum as Infrastructure: Shifting Value from Builders to Users
While vendor revenue remains modest, the overall quantum economy is accelerating. The field could ultimately become a general-purpose platform, akin to electricity or the internet, that generates trillions in value but accrues direct profits unevenly. In other words, quantum computing may become infrastructure, not an industry. And like any infrastructure, its real power lies in what it enables.
For founders and investors, these projections reinforce the need to evaluate where and how value is actually captured in the quantum stack. While hardware development remains essential, the broader opportunity may lie in building or enabling applications that translate quantum capabilities into measurable business outcomes.
For enterprise leaders and policymakers, the implication is not merely to fund quantum R&D, but to develop internal capacity to identify use cases, integrate quantum into workflows, and align technical pilots with commercial priorities. As the data shows, the majority of value will not be extracted by those who build the infrastructure, but by those who can use it effectively and early.
In that sense, the upside belongs not only to the inventors, but to the organizations prepared to operationalize the invention.
To explore the full market model, sector insights, and data behind these projections, access the complete Quantum Market Sizing Report via The Quantum Insider’s Market Intelligence platform.
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